The Dollar: Gold Beating Green

The Israel-Iran war has triggered yet another rise in the price of gold. That is no surprise. Gold has been seen as a safe harbor by investors for a long, long time. More interesting is that the price of gold has been strengthening for a while now, something I discussed in a Capital Letter from April 2024. I attributed its strength to, among other factors, worries about inflation, worries about America’s fiscal position, and worries about a tense geopolitical situation. Since then, concern over the latter two has not exactly gone away, and tariff wars have only added to investor jitters. In April 2024, gold was trading at around $2,400, an all-time high. It is now priced at about $3,400, up about 6 percent on the month…

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Bloc Trade: Russia, China, and the Limits of Globalization

Another week, and more bloodshed in Ukraine. How the Russian invasion will play out remains anyone’s guess, but one result seems increasingly likely. What began as an imperial gambit may well end up with the imperialist transformed into the junior partner, or even satellite, of a greater superpower still on the rise.

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